Climate Change 2016 – The Future Has Arrived: References
By Bruce Melton PE
Climate Change Now Initiative, 501c3
12/24/16
1)
Extremes…
Herring et al., Explaining Extreme Events of 2015 from a Climate Perspective,
BAMS, December, 2016.
http://www.ametsoc.net/eee/2015/2015_bams_eee_low_res.pdf
2)
Attempts at
Climate Reform…
Kyoto Protocol Era emissions reductions were born of the 1992 Rio Earth
Summit. The Clean Power Plan is 32 percent below 2005 levels by 2030 (1969
levels of 4007 Gt C) vs. Kyoto at 7 percent below 1990 levels by 2012 (1984
levels of 4559 Gt C). CPP is 12 percent more stringent but 18 years behind.
Kyoto commitments for Phase II were generally at 80 percent below 1990 by 2020.
(The United States, South Sudan and Afghanistan were the only countries to not
ratify Kyoto). The current UNFCCC commitment by the United States is 80 percent
below 2005 levels by 2050, 30 years behind.
2015 Paris Climate Conference emissions reduction commitments of 80
percent by 2050 are literally 30 years later than Kyoto Protocol commitments of
80 percent by 2020.
Historical Emissions 1850 to present, World Resource Institute:
http://cait.wri.org/historical
(download full data)
Clean Power Plan Fact Sheet:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2015/08/03/fact-sheet-president-obama-announce-historic-carbon-pollution-standards
Kyoto Protocol Reference Manual:
http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/publications/08_unfccc_kp_ref_manual.pdf
Phase II Kyoto Protocol:
http://unfccc.int/files/kyoto_protocol/application/pdf/kp_doha_amendment_english.pdf
United States 2050 UNFCCC commitment:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2015/03/31/fact-sheet-us-reports-its-2025-emissions-target-unfccc
Current Policy doubles to triples warming
we have already endured… The
IPCC’s new Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenario of RCP2.6, is
basically the same thing as 80 percent emissions reductions by 2050 and is
described by the IPCC as a “strong mitigation scenario.” RCP2.6 has CO2 peaking
at about 440 ppm between 2050 and 2060 and temperature at 1.5 degree C 30 to 40
years later. The increase of 1.6 degrees C is double the current warming since
the 1700s. This increase however is the average increase. The worst-case RCP2.6
warming is 2.7 degrees C or more than triple current warming. Considering the
understating nature of the IPCC consensus (See Reference 7), the upper limits
should be strongly considered as a distinctly plausible. Under the average
RCP2.6 modeling and 1.6 degrees of warming with aggressive emissions reductions,
the concentration of CO2 in our atmosphere does not fall below today’s level
until after 2150, and does not return to preindustrial era temperature until
long after the year 3000. Under the most extreme RCP2.6 limits with 2.7 degrees
of warming above preindustrial times, Earth’s temperature does not fall below
our current temperature for well over a 1,000 years.
Meinshausen et al., The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions
from 1765 to 2300, Climatic Change, November 2011, figure 6.
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-011-0156-z
3)
Manmade
Climate Change Extends Back 8,000 Years…
Rudimann, Late Holocene climate-natural or anthropogenic?, Reviews of
Geophysics, December 29, 2015.
https://ir.library.oregonstate.edu/xmlui/bitstream/handle/1957/59400/RuddimanLateHoloceneClimate.pdf?sequence=1
4)
Increasing
Wildfire Across Western North America…
Westerling, Increasing western US forest wildfire activity, sensitivity to
changes in the timing of spring, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society
B, May 23, 2016.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/303504090_Increasing_western_US_forest_wildfire_activity_Sensitivity_to_changes_in_the_timing_of_spring
Abatzoglou and Williams, Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire in
the western US, PNAS, October 16, 2016.
http://www.pnas.org/content/113/42/11770.abstract
5)
The Amazon
Continues to Emit More Carbon than it Absorbs…
Feldpausch, Amazon forest response repeated droughts, Global Biogeochemical
Cycles, July 1, 2016.
Press Release:
http://www.exeter.ac.uk/news/featurednews/title_527669_en.html
Lewis at. al., The 2010 Amazon Drought, Science, February, 2011.
(Free subscription)
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/49809450_The_2010_Amazon_Drought
6)
Greenland Ice
Sheet Aquifer Found to Enhance Melt Runoff…
Macghuth, et al., Greenland meltwater storage in firn limited by
near-surface ice formation, Nature Climate Change, January 4, 2016.
Abstract:
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v6/n4/full/nclimate2899.html
Free Researchgate subscription:
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/289356968_Greenland_meltwater_storage_in_firn_limited_by_near-surface_ice_formation
7)
A
Large Increase in Methane Emissions…
Turner et al., A large increase in U.S. methane emissions over the past decade
inferred from satellite data and surface observations, Geophysical Research
Letters, February 6, 2016.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/293195028_A_large_increase_in_US_methane_emissions_over_the_past_decade_inferred_from_satellite_data_and_surface_observations
8)
El Nino…
Evaluation of annual data from GISTEMP global temperature data.
GISTEMP Team, 2016: GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP). NASA Goddard
Institute for Space Studies. Dataset accessed 20YY-MM-DD at
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/
Hansen, J., R. Ruedy, M. Sato, and K. Lo, 2010: Global surface temperature
change, Rev. Geophys., 48, RG4004, doi:10.1029/2010RG000345.
9)
Psycho…
The Climate Change Counter Movement and it's purposeful deceit of the American
Public.
Farrell, Corporate funding and ideological polarization about climate change,
PNAS, January 5, 2016.
http://www.pnas.org/content/113/1/92.full.pdf
10)
Abrupt Sea
Level Rise…
Hansen et al., Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from
paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 ◦C global
warming could be dangerous, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, March 27, 2016.
http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/16/3761/2016/acp-16-3761-2016.pdf
11)
NOAA's Ice
Sheet Collapse Warning…
This is an "ostensible" ice sheet collapse warning. In other words:
being such in appearance:
plausible rather than demonstrably true or real. In an interview in the
Insurance Journal in April, Margaret Davidson, NOAA’s senior advisor for coastal
inundation and resilience science and services said "recent data that has been
collected but has yet to be made official indicates sea levels could rise by
roughly 3 meters or 9 feet [9.8 feet] by 2050-2060, far higher and quicker than
current projections." This report was widely discounted in the press and by
theoretical "experts". Davidson further explained herself in an interview in
ClimateCrocks--itself with a substantially questioning title " New Sea Level
Story May be a Step too Far". The words of Davidson have great meaning however
and completely negate any attempt at discounting her statements. ClimateCrocks
posted a text obtained from Margaret Davidson of NOAA to Eric Holthaus of Slate,
of which the following quote summarizes the pertinent information: “i explained
the time lag between observations/data in the field and published approved
scientific consensus of peer reviewed literature can be as much as 10 years. and
as before, the next approved consensus will likely see a notable uptick in slr
[sea level rise] guidance (based upon field work in the period ’05-13) as it
will need to have been published by 2017 when the synthesis process begins anew.
I am not a scientist, but hang with them a lot. referenced recent paper by
Hansen et al (which suggested 3 to 5 meters by 2100 tho Hansen has been saying 5
meters for nearly 15 years.) current work re cryosphere and mass water balance,
which is a more recent area of science work. and reports regarding current field
observations as mentioned and discussed by experts at various scientific mtgs on
presentation rooms an corridors within past 6 months. WA [West Antarctic Ice
Sheet] deteriorating rapidly… portions of shelf are now ungrounded with a lens
of water underneath like Greenland but different. actually said my personal
opinion was 2 to 3 meters in the next 50 years (that 2100 was not a useful frame
for most people.)”
Jerger, RIMS 2016: Sea Level Rise Will Be Worse and Come Sooner, Insurance
Journal, April 12, 2016.
http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2016/04/12/405089.htm
ClimateCrocks.com, Peter Sinclair, Caution: New Sea Level Story May be a Step
too Far, April 21, 2016.
https://climatecrocks.com/2016/04/21/caution-new-sea-level-story-may-be-a-step-too-far/
One meter (three feet) sea level rise
adaptation limit… “only a limited number of adaptation options are available
for specific coastal areas if sea level exceeds a certain threshold (1 m) at the
end of the century.”
IPCC 2013, Physical Science Basis, Chapter 5, Coastal Systems and Low-lying
Areas, Adaptation opportunities, Constraints and Limits, Page 393, paragraph 10.
https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/WGIIAR5-Chap5_FINAL.pdf
Evidence is Common of abrupt sea level
jumps in our Ancient Past…
40 mm per year… Deschamps et al., Ice-sheet collapse and sea-level rise at
the Bolling warming 14,600 years ago, Nature, March 29, 2012.
http://www.grandkidzfuture.com/earths-climate/ewExternalFiles/meltwater%20pulse%201A%20Nature%202012.pdf
20 feet… O’Leary – Australia, The
authors say 6m (20 feet) of sea level rise at 120,000 year before present in
1,000 years. Their data show a few hundred years.
Oleary et al., Ice sheet collapse following a prolonged period of stable sea
level during the last interglacial, Nature Geoscience, July 28, 2013.
http://moraymo.us/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/olearyetal_natgeo_20131.pdf
20 to 29 feet… Sea level in recent
interglacials with the Eemian, MIS
5e (~129,000 to 116,000 years ago) experiencing
sea level rise of 6 to 9 meters above today and a global temperature a
few degrees C above today. During MIS 11 (Mid Pleistocene, ~424,000 to 395,000
years ago) there was 6 to 13 m of sea level rise and the temperature was about
the same as today.
Dutton et al., Sea-level rise due to polar ice-sheet mass loss during warm
periods, Science, July 10, 2015.
http://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/349/6244/aaa4019.full.pdf?ijkey=X1LVowf1Ilirc&keytype=ref&siteid=sci
65 feet plus sea level rise
mid-Pleistocene…
Hearty, MIS 11 rocks! The “smoking gun” of a catastrophic +20 m eustatic
sea-level rise, Pages, April 2007.
http://www.pages-igbp.org/download/docs/newsletter/2007-1/open_highlights/Hearty_2007-1(25-26).pdf
Hearty et al., A +20 m middle Pleistocene sea-level highstand (Bermuda and the
Bahamas) due to partial collapse of Antarctic ice, Geology, 1999. (abstract
only)
http://geology.gsapubs.org/content/27/4/375.abstract
Hearty, The Kaena highstand on Oahu, Hawaii: Further evidence of Antarctic Ice
collapse during the middle, Pacific Science, 2002.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/29737777_The_Ka'ena_Highstand_of_O'ahu_Hawai'i_Further_Evidence_of_Antarctic_Ice_Collapse_during_the_Middle_Pleistocene
Most Extreme: Xcaret REef -- 6.5 to 10
feet of sea level rise in 12 to 24 years… Xcaret Reef, Yucatan Peninsula:
During the short warm period before our last 100,000 year-long ice age, very
similar to what we are experiencing today, a reef called Xcaret on the Yucatan
Peninsula was suddenly drowned. Corals are very picky about the depth of water
where they live and the Elkhorn coral in particular was devastated by a sea
level jump of 6.5 to 10 feet about 121,000 years ago. The jump came in several
pulses, the largest of which was 6.5 to 10 feet. The time frame could not be
determined exactly because dating materials this old is just not that accurate.
The “backstepping,” literally, the reef moving back as the authors describe the
drowning event, was very evident in their work as the normal coral skeletons
were replaced dramatically by algal remains, indicating that suddenly, the water
became too deep for the corals to survive. Even though chemical dating is not
accurate enough to determine the time period of the sea level jump, the authors
say that that it took place in a time frame that was one to two life spans of
elkhorn coral. Because elkhorn lives 10 to 12 years, this time period could be
as short as 10 to 24 years. First Paragraph, page 884: “During those jumps,
direct measurement of rise rates shows that they exceeded 36 mm per year.” (1.2
feet per decade)
Blanchon, et al., Rapid sea level rise and reef back stepping at the close of
the last interglacial highstand, Nature, April 2009.
https://www.academia.edu/196059/Rapid_sea-level_rise_and_reef_back-stepping_at_the_close_of_the_last_interglacial_highstand
12)
Antarctic Ice
Shelves Deteriorating Rapidly…
Ice shelves buttressing land ice in Antarctica have seen a dramatic decline
in volume due to thinning and retreat. As the shelves thin from under ice melt,
their ability to cling to surrounding land and grounded ice diminishes and ice
flows faster from the interior. Part of the increase in ocean temperatures doing
the melting is actually caused by increased sea ice coverage in Antarctica in
recent decades. The increased sea ice itself is part of a melt water feedback
where less salty (less dense) melt water floats on the surface of the ocean
instead of mixing with saltier denser water below. The fresh water freezes
faster and is responsible for more sea ice. The combination of increased sea ice
and the fresh water cap decreases wind mixing of deep ocean waters into surface
waters. This wind mixing is responsible for upwelling cold deep waters so less
upwelling means that more heat is trapped in upper ocean waters. It is this
upper ocean water that circulates beneath the ice shelves and causes the melt
that destabilizes them and increase ice discharge. Paolo et al., Volume loss
from Antarctic ice shelves is accelerating, Science Express, March 25, 2016.
http://www.ccpo.odu.edu/~klinck/Reprints/PDF/paoloScience15.pdf
Up to 100 meters (328 feet) of Under Ice Melt per year…
Underice melt in excess of 100 meters per year… The
Pine Island Glacier at the Amundsen Sea
Embayment, often referred to as the keystone of West Antarctic Ice Sheet
Collapse, is thinning from under ice melt at a rate that is up to 100 meters per
year (328 feet). The thinning is caused by increased circulation of warming
ocean waters because the 3,000 foot-thick glacier has melted up off of its
pinning ridge. Ocean circulation can now move far back into the ice sheet
feeding the glacier in an over deepened sub glacial trough 30 miles wide
extending 100 miles inland.
Dutrieux et al., Pine Island glacier ice shelf melt distributed at kilometre
scales, The Cryosphere, September 26, 2013.
http://www.the-cryosphere.net/7/1543/2013/tc-7-1543-2013.pdf
13)
Ocean Heat
Content Doubles in Recent Decades…
Gleckler et al., Industrial-era global ocean heat uptake doubles in recent
decades, Nature Climate Change, January 18, 2016.
14)
First Tipping
Point Timeline for Collapse of the WAIS…
This work out of the German National Science Institute describes marine ice
sheet collapse mechanisms, and how there is a very distinct tipping point with
the West Antarctic Ice Sheet where collapse becomes irreversible in about 2050
to 2060. The very important take-away from this work is that to prevent ice
sheet collapse the “perturbation” that creates the warming that is responsible
for ice sheet collapse, which is mostly ocean warming, must end by at the latest
2050. This means that we must return ocean temperature to its preindustrial
stable temperature by 2050. The challenge here is that it is much more difficult
to cool the oceans than it is the atmosphere. Figure 3 shows the model runs that
define the stable state in blue.
Feldmann and Levermann, Collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet after local
destabilization of the Amundsen Basin, PNAS, November 17, 2015.
http://www.pnas.org/content/112/46/14191.full.pdf
15)
Dynamical Ice
Sheet Collapse Modeling Arrives…
The abstract from DeConto and Pollard states: “model coupling ice sheet and
climate dynamics—including previously underappreciated processes linking
atmospheric warming with hydrofracturing of buttressing ice shelves and
structural collapse of marine-terminating ice cliffs—that is calibrated against
Pliocene and Last Interglacial sea-level estimates and applied to future
greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Antarctica has the potential to contribute
more than a metre of sea-level rise by 2100 and more than 13 metres by 2500, if
emissions continue unabated.”
DeConto and Pollard, Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea level
rise, Nature, March 31, 2016.
Abstract:
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v531/n7596/full/nature17145.html?WT.feed_name=subjects_earth-and-environmental-sciences
Full:
http://www.documentcloud.org/documents/2823837-DeConto-Pollard-2016-Contribution-of-Antarctica.html
16)
Larsen Ice
Shelf Collapsing…
NASA, December 1:
https://www.nasa.gov/image-feature/rift-in-antarcticas-larsen-c-ice-shelf
NASA December 16:
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=89257
Collapse of the Larsen B, due to warming:
http://www.the-cryosphere.net/9/957/2015/tc-9-957-2015.pdf
17)
Alternative's
and Renewable Energy…
Triple that of the U.S. or Europe: IEA, Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market
Report 2016.
https://www.iea.org/Textbase/npsum/MTrenew2016sum.pdf
World Energy Investment 2016, International Energy Administration.
https://www.iea.org/Textbase/npsum/WEI2016SUM.pdf
No New Coal for China or India:
China --
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/26/business/energy-environment/china-coal.html?_r=0
India --
http://www.cea.nic.in/reports/committee/nep/nep_dec.pdf
18)
Stratospheric
Geoengineering With Chlorides, Not Sulfates
Keith et al., Stratospheric solar geoengineering without ozone loss, PNAS,
December 12, 2016.
http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2016/12/07/1615572113.full.pdf
19)
Sequestration
Through Mineralization: Much faster than Previously Understood…
Matter et al., Rapid carbon mineralization for permanent disposal of CO2,
Science, June 10, 2016.
Free Researchgate account --
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/303450549_Rapid_carbon_mineralization_for_permanent_disposal_of_anthropogenic_carbon_dioxide_emissions
20)
Carbon
Capture Using Fuel Cells and Coal Fired Power—Generates More Net Energy, Not
Less…
Fuel Cell Energy partnering with Exxon Mobile:
http://corporate.exxonmobil.com/en/technology/carbon-capture-and-sequestration/advanced-carbonate-fuel-cell-technology/advanced-carbonate-fuel-cell-technology
White paper:
http://www.fuelcellenergy.com/assets/DFC-Carbon-Capture-White-Paper.pdf
21)
Direct Air
Capture Work Continues…
Shi, Xiao, Lackner and Chen, Capture CO2 from Ambient Air Using Nanoconfined
Ion Hydration, Angewandte Chemie, March 16, 2016.
Press Release:
http://www.newswise.com/articles/columbia-engineers-develop-new-low-cost-way-to-capture-carbon
Abstract:
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/anie.201507846/abstract
22)
American
Physical Society and MIT "theoretical Controversy"…
Direct Air Capture (DAC) of Carbon Dioxide—Whose Science is Correct?
Reports of new DAC technologies in the 2000s gave hope for a silver bullet for
climate pollution. Estimates of costs on the order $20 per ton were made based
on lab experiments and small scale projects. In 2011, two reports surfaced, one
from the American Physical Society (APS) and the other from Massachusetts
Institute of Technology (MIT). Both declared the physics behind the promising
research was impossible and that costs would be $600 to $1,000 per ton or more.
Because of the plausibility of a simple solution to climate pollution, these
reports were widely repeated in the media. What did not make the media however,
were subsequent rebuttals that showed the two negative reports only evaluated
mature, WWII Era carbon capture techniques and both made fundamental errors in
physics. The rebuttals used the incorrect APS and MIT work to show that the
former promising research was valid.
Global Thermostat Full Scale Pilot Project: $10 per ton with waste heat…
The important aspect to understand about the Global Thermostat project is that
energy is the largest component of DAC and these studies used $0.07 to $0.20 per
kWh, whereas today solar power is at $0.03 per kWh and continuing to fall
rapidly.
Global Thermostat Graciela Chichilnisky Presentation, slide 7, $10 per ton.
http://www.slideshare.net/GracielaChichilnisky/global-thermostat-young-startup-venture-summit-v21
http://www.globalthermostat.com/
Direct air capture (DAC) costs… Goeppert et al., produced a literature
summary of current DAC findings in 2012. It is important to note that
considerable false propaganda has been circulated in the media about the
infeasibility of DAC based on a report by the American Physical Society.
Discussion of this apparent controversy is given below highlights of Geoppert
2012.
Goeppert et al., Air as the renewable carbon source of the future - CO2 Capture
from the atmosphere, Energy and Environmental Science, May 1, 2012.
Abstract only:
http://pubs.rsc.org/en/Content/ArticleLanding/2012/EE/c2ee21586a#!divAbstract
$20 per ton (just over) capture and storage… Section 5.1 paragraph 2,
“using the K2CO3/KHCO3 cycle is described as being able to capture CO2 from air
for less than $20 per ton. The total cost including sub-surface injection was
estimated to be slightly above $20 per ton.”
$49 to $80 per ton… Section 5.1 paragraph 3: “An air capture system
designed by Keith et al. using a Na/Ca cycle was estimated to cost approximately
$500 per ton C ($140 per ton CO2).81,98 The authors added that about a third of
this cost was related to capital and maintenance cost. Further development and
optimization of the system by Carbon Engineering Ltd.113 for the effective
extraction of CO2 from air resulted in the decrease of the estimated cost to
$49–80 per tonne CO2.”
$30 per ton long term… Section 5.1, paragraph 5: “Lackner and co-workers
developed an anionic exchange resin able to release CO2 in a moisture swing
process. The cost of only the energy required per ton of CO2 collected was
around $15. The initial cost of air capture including manufacturing and
maintenance can be estimated at about $200 per ton of CO2. However, this cost is
expected to drop considerably as more collectors are built, possibly putting CO2
capture in the $30 per ton range in the long term.”
Conclusion, first paragraph... “Despite its very low concentration of
only 390 ppm, the capture of CO2 directly from the air is technically feasible.
Theoretically, CO2 capture from the atmosphere would only require about 2 to 4
times as much energy as capture from flue gases, which is relatively modest
considering that at the same time the CO2 concentration is decreased by roughly
a factor of 250–300.”
American Physical
Society Study…
APS research revealed as significantly incomplete by Nature… Socolow 2011
evaluated existing WWII Era atmospheric removal techniques and not surprisingly
found them economically infeasible to address climate pollution. New
technologies were not evaluated. The media widely circulated the APS study and
even though the third most important scientific journal in the world refuted APS
claims—because they did not evaluate current new technologies—the damage was
done; the media cycle has run its course. Today DAC is almost completely
discredited in climate pollution mitigation strategies considered by policy
makers and advocates, regardless of academic findings counter to this
understanding.
Socolow et al., Direct Air Capture of CO2 with Chemicals, The American Physical
Society, June 2011.
http://www.aps.org/policy/reports/assessments/upload/dac2011.pdf
Evaluation of APS Study
by Nature…
Van Norden, Sucking carbon dioxide from air too costly, say physicists,
Nature, May 11, 2011.
http://blogs.nature.com/news/2011/05/sucking_carbon_dioxide_from_ai.html
Evaluates only mature technologies… House et al., economic and energetic
analysis of capturing CO2 from ambient air, PNAS, September 2011.
http://sequestration.mit.edu/pdf/1012253108full.pdf
Further rebuttal of APS
and MIT… Holmes and Keith identifies short fallings of MIT and APS work
calling out different design choices, insufficient optimization and use of
higher cost processes. When new DAC technologies are evaluated, costs are at or
below those of mature DAC removal technology.
Holmes and Keith, An air-liquid contactor for large-scale capture of CO2 from
air, Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society A, 370, 4380-4403, 2012.
http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/370/1974/4380
Flawed analysis of the
Basic physics of enthalpy… These researchers point out a fundamental flaw in
the work of APS and MIT showing direct air capture takes more energy than flue
capture because of CO2 concentration: “The notion of minimum work does not apply
to the capture of CO2, because the capture process is exothermic.” When CO2 is
reacted with something to remove it from air or flue gas, the reaction creates
heat, “is exothermic.” So instead of 400 kJ or work per mole CO2 energy required
the actual energy required involves moving air over whatever process is used to
remove the CO2 from the air. This is 6 kJ per mole CO2. This relationship of the
actual costs of removal of CO2 from the atmosphere being 1.5 percent of the
costs suggested by APS and MIT corresponds very well to the costs assumed by
research evaluating new technologies of +/- $20 per ton. It is important to note
that the cost of regenerating the chemicals used to capture the CO2, whether for
flue gas or atmospheric capture, is identical.
Realff and Eisenberger, Flawed analysis of the possibility of air capture, June
19, 2012.
http://sequestration.mit.edu/pdf/2012_PNAS_StorageCapacity_LetterToEditor.pdf
23)
Clean Power Plan and US
Paris Climate Talks Commitment are less stringent than the Kyoto Protocol… Kyoto
Protocol Era emissions reductions were born of the 1992 Rio Earth Summit. The
Clean Power Plan is 32 percent below 2005 levels by 2030 (1969 levels of 4007 Gt
C) vs. Kyoto at 7 percent below 1990 levels by 2012 (1984 levels of 4559 Gt C).
CPP is 12 percent more stringent but 18 years behind. Kyoto commitments for
Phase II were generally at 80 percent below 1990 by 2020. (The United States,
South Sudan and Afghanistan were the only countries to not ratify Kyoto). The
current UNFCCC commitment by the United States is 80 percent below 2005 levels
by 2050, 30 years behind. 2015 Paris Climate Conference emissions reduction commitments of 80
percent by 2050 are literally 30 years later than Kyoto Protocol commitments of
80 percent by 2020.
Historical Emissions 1850 to present, World Resource Institute:
http://cait.wri.org/historical (download
full data)
Clean Power Plan Fact Sheet:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2015/08/03/fact-sheet-president-obama-announce-historic-carbon-pollution-standards
Kyoto Protocol Reference Manual:
http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/publications/08_unfccc_kp_ref_manual.pdf
Phase II Kyoto Protocol: http://unfccc.int/files/kyoto_protocol/application/pdf/kp_doha_amendment_english.pdf
United States 2050 UNFCCC commitment:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2015/03/31/fact-sheet-us-reports-its-2025-emissions-target-unfccc