Damage from wind, bark beetles and wildfires have increased in Europe’s forests since 1900. This report quantifies these damages and models then out to 2030 for the purpose of evaluating forest management techniques on limiting damages.
There work finds that management techniques will have a difficult time keeping up and relative to the overall European carbon budget, these damages to forests have reversed an increase in carbon storage caused explicitly by warming. By 2030, emissions from Europe’s forests under a business as usual climate scenario will be 57 gigatons per year. The authors are ensure that we understand that some of the modeling processes they have included historically underestimate impacts from warming.
Seidl, et al., Increasing forest disturbances in Europe and their impact on carbon storage, Nature Climate Change August 2014.