Skip to main content

Climate Emergency Hope for 2024

Busted: The global 1.5 degree C above normal dangerous climate change threshold

Climate Emergency Hope for 2024

A Remarkable Jump in Temperature?

Bruce Melton PE, ClimateDiscovery.org

Happy New Year all,

I want to let you all know about what may to some seem like a perverse perception of “hope” with our accelerating climate emergency. In 2024 we will almost certainly pass the 1.5 degree C warming above normal “dangerous” threshold, that will likely create a meaningful opportunity to increase awareness of the climate emergency. This is the “hope,” that we will finally take appropriate action to adopt a restoration target for climate change and do it fast.

Al Gore scissor lift 2006, An Inconvenient Truth
Most of you know we have been experiencing warming acceleration recently, or the increase in warming-induced extremes weather.  But a tremendous acceleration of global warming has begun since May or June 2023.
These graphics from Berkeley Earth show the results of what Al Gore was talking about in 2006 as the worst case result of accelerated warming if we did not reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
James Hansen and his team of researchers at Columbia University have been trying to bring this temperature jump to the world’s attention this fall as its causes and implications are plausible the most important thing to ever happen to our advanced civilization. On December 19, Berkeley Earth released their November 2023 temperature summary and gave 2023 (not 2024) a 99 percent chance of exceeding 1.5 C. For the last eight years the global temperature has hovered around 1.3 degrees C above normal from the mid to late 19th century. It is entirely plausible the 2023 warming will be near 1.6 degree C.
Goddard Institute for Spaces Studies, global average temperature 2023 through November
For ages the climate science community has warned that this warming acceleration may happen in the late 21st century if we did not get our climate pollution mitigation act together. As we have continued to increase emissions globally, the timeline for crossing this warming acceleration threshold has become shorter and shorter. In January this year we were warned the 1.5 C threshold crossing could happen as early as 2030 or 2035. And now here it is, like almost every impact from climate change; happening decades to generations or a century ahead of projections (see here).

This “perverse” good news is that when the final 2023 temperature is released, the media will likely go bananas. When the media gets fired up, folks pay attention. This is a very serious development that deserves the strongest response yet on climate change action.

“The surprising warmth over recent months and the strong El Niño, raised our estimates for the final 2023 annual average. We now consider there to be a 99% chance that 2023 has an annual-average temperature anomaly more than 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) above the 1850-1900 average. Prior to the start of 2023, the likelihood of a 1.5 °C annual average this year was estimated at ~1%. The fact that this forecast has shifted so greatly serves to underscore the extraordinarily progression of 2023, whose warmth has far exceeded expectations.” (Berkeley Earth November Temperature Update 12/19/23)
This exeedance of the dangerous 1.5 degree C threshold so far ahead of projections will be (I believe) particularly conducive to communicating the great need for emergency actions. These actions include ramping up the infrastructure for carbon capture to reduce the load of climate pollutants already accumulated in our sky that has caused this warming rate acceleration and to do it fast – far faster than what the climate science consensus community suggests as “by the end of the century.”

It includes the opportunity to advance the need for emergency cooling through direct cooling strategies (geoengineering) that can accomplish in years what emissions elimination can only accomplish in centuries, and where atmospheric carbon capture will take a decade at very best. Emissions reductions, net zero, decarbonization: this will come, and these things remain extremely important for long-term sustainability however, emissions elimination only reduces future warming. It is current warming from greenhouse gasses currently in our sky that have produced this dangerous threshold crossing. Emissions reductions will help a small amount but time is now very critical as once this warming acceleration has begun, it does not stop until we lower Earth’s temperature. This is one of the reasons that Sierra Club now supports research into geoengineering in case emergency cooling is needed. But when this policy was adopted in 2020, the policy team had no idea that a warming acceleration threshold would be crossed in 2023. We have crossed a dangerous threshold. Emergency action is needed immediately.

Berkeley Earth monthly global average temperature, 1850 to 2023