MIT Study: Twice as hot as predicted 6 years ago

By May 21, 2009 February 26th, 2013 Heat, Temperature

 We have come to understand an enormous amount about our climate since the turn of the Century.  the latest and most accurate super computer models are now predicting climate change far worse than was predicted with the IPCC Fourth Assessment.

The MIT News release begins: "The most comprehensive modeling yet carried out on the likelihood of how much hotter the Earth’s climate will get in this century shows that without rapid and massive action, the problem will be about twice as severe as previously estimated six years ago – and could be even worse than that."

The study sees 5.2 degrees C (9.4 F) warming by 2100 under an average scenario with that considers the business as usual scenario. The range is 6.3 to 13.3 F, just by 2100. Beyond 2100 the temperature continues to increase.

The model DOES NOT take into consideration many of the better known but poorly understood feedback mechanisms such as methane release from permafrost melt.

MIT News – Climate change odds much worse than thought

Sokolov, et. al., Probabilistic forecast for 21st century climate based on uncertainties in emissions (without policy) and climate parameters. Journal of Climate, May 2009