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Abrupt changes

Climate Change 2017: What Happened and What It Means

By Abrupt changes, Arctic, Climate Catastrophes, Extreme Weather, Fire, Flooding, Impacts, polar vortex, rainfall, Sea Level Rise, The Unexpected, West Antarctic Ice Sheet

Climate Change 2017: What Happened and What It Means By Bruce Melton First posted on Truthout.org, December 30, 2017 How many more billions of dollars in damages will it take? How many more lives? It’s obvious; all the climate extremes we have been experiencing lately are indeed caused by climate change. Our climate is already…

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Very Large Negative Emissions: Beyond Paris Emissions Reductions to a Safe and Healthy Climate

By Abrupt changes, Climate Catastrophes, Climate Policy, Climate Reform, climate solutions, CO2 Removal and Sequestration, Emissions Scenarios, Extreme Weather, Impacts, modeling, Negative emissions, Scenarios, Sea Level Rise, Strategy, West Antarctic Ice Sheet

James Hansen, 32 year director of the U.S. national climate modeling agency, the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (1981-2013, now retired), has had a new fundamental piece of climate work published. His team looks at the negative emissions required–in addition to various scenarios for emissions reductions–that are needed to achieve “non-dangerous” warming. Under Hansen’s…

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Forestkill: Coniferous, Deciduous, Palm and Cactus — Climate Change is Everywhere

By Abrupt changes, Drought, forest health, Forest Mortality, pine beetle, Shifting Ecology, Vegetation Response

Slowly and insidiously, or abruptly and finitely. Forests of all kinds are succumbing to climate change. Mountain forests, city forests, forests in the southeast and the far north. Pine, spruce, fir, oak, maple. Nontraditional forests too; the palms of LA, succulents in the desert. Yes, deserts are at risk too. Deserts as ecosystems are fragile…

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Another Big Antarctic Calving From New Underice Melt

By Abrupt changes, Glaciers, ice sheet, submarine channel, West Antarctic Ice Sheet

Another Big Antarctic Calving From New Underice Melt Ice scientists have been warning us since 2006 that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) has begun its collapse. Giant icebergs are a symptom that collapse initiation is underway. The continuing laissez-faire attitude of the press to these events is counter intuitive and even dangerous, and represents…

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When Does Climate Catastrophism Become Climate Reality?

By Abrupt changes, adaptation, Climate Catastrophes, Climate Culture, Climate Policy, economics, Extreme Weather, flood, modeling

  Climate catastrophism, or as it will be called soon, reality, is getting tougher to pin down with every new climate catastrophe. A real page turner on the subject is Lynas, Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet. It’s from 2007 and hyperbolic for the day, but appearing less so as extremeness increases faster…

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New Climate Culture

By Abrupt changes, alternatives, Climate Culture, Climate Policy, Climate Reform, climate solutions, Emissions, Emissions Scenarios, global warming psychology, Legacy Policy, Messaging, Negative emissions, politics, Psycho, Scenarios, Solutions, Strategy, What we can do

  New Climate Culture Our climate culture of the last two or three decades, very bluntly, not working out . Yes, carbon emissions are decreasing, or at least they are not increasing as fast a they were or as fast as projected. Possibly, they are even decreasing. But the bottom line is that current warming…

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Large Negative Emissions of 80 Gt Annually Allow Dangerous Warming

By Abrupt changes, CO2, CO2 Removal and Sequestration, Emissions, Emissions Scenarios, fossil fuels, Legacy Policy, Negative emissions, Scenarios, Sea Level Rise, Solutions, Strategy, Temperature

The greatest climate dude of all time has done it again. James Hansen, 32 year director of the U.S. national climate modeling agency, the NASA Goddard institute for Space Studies, published a new fundamental piece of climate work last month. He looks at the additional negative emission on top of Paris reductions that are needed…

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Third 100-year Plus Drought in Amazonia in Ten Years

By Abrupt changes, Drought, El Nino, forest health, Forest Mortality, Shifting Ecology

The list of Amazonian drought records has grown to Amazonian proportions. Three 100-year plus droughts in a decade have taken their toll. Along with continual man-created ecological compromise, climate warming, and forest mortality from drought a very strong El Nino has grown into their strongest drought ever recorded since record keeping began in 1900. The…

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Sea Level Rise Scenarios Starting to Catch Up With Prehistory

By Abrupt changes, Climate Reform, CO2 Removal and Sequestration, ice sheets, modeling, Negative emissions, Sea Level Rise, sequestration, short-term, Solutions, Strategy, West Antarctic Ice Sheet

McClatchy reported on a new NOAA sea level rise impact report and made some very good points. But a lot of the true meaning is left out. I like to use well publicized journalism like this to be able to quickly get to the most important pieces of the science being reported on, that are…

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Climate Change: What Should We Do?

By Abrupt changes, Climate Catastrophes, Climate Policy, Climate Reform, CO2 Removal and Sequestration, Emissions Scenarios, forest health, Forest Mortality, ice sheets, Myths, Negative emissions, pine beetle, Scenarios, sequestration, What we can do

One of the biggest myths about climate change is that emissions reductions cool Earth. This is nowhere close to reality. Even the Paris Commitments of 80 percent emissions reductions by 2050 allow warming to triple by 2050 and quintuple by 2100.  We (the royal we) have great challenges as climate reform decision makers. If our…

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Fundamental Climate Science:  Time Frames, Net Warming and Implications for Strategy

By Abrupt changes, Climate Reform, CO2 Removal and Sequestration, Emissions, Emissions Scenarios, global cooling pollutants, Legacy Policy, Negative emissions, Scenarios, short-term, Solutions, Strategy

The IPCC changed their fundamental philosophy on how they evaluate scenarios of our future climate in their 2013 reporting, but they have yet to acknowledge the most common and meaningful way our climate usually changes, implying negative consequences for traditional climate reform strategies. Popular science however, continues on the path of traditional climate reform strategies…

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Global Warming vs. Abrupt Change — What’s the Difference?

By Abrupt changes, Arctic, Glaciers, Greenland, Gulf Stream, ice sheets, modeling, Sea Level Rise, West Antarctic Ice Sheet

Something that is not clear in the overall climate discussion is that global warming is a radically different beast from abrupt change.  We hear abrupt change bandied about, but often it is not well defined. It appears to many that global warming is abrupt change simply because the warming we are experiencing, and that is…

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Ice Loss During Antarctic Cold Reversal May Spell Trouble for WAIS Collapse

By Abrupt changes, Glaciers, Greenland, Gulf Stream, ice sheet, Oceans, underice, West Antarctic Ice Sheet

Fifty-two feet of sea level rise occurred in 400 years, 14,500 years ago with ocean and collapse conditions similar to today. We were coming out of the last ice age then, but then, forcing was thousands of times less than today. Our climate’s most meaningful and common changes are classified as abrupt changes in climate…

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Climate Intervention: NAS DAC Review — Atmospheric CO2 Removal and Sequestration Costs

By Abrupt changes, CO2, CO2 Removal and Sequestration, Negative emissions, sequestration, Solutions, Strategy

A quick note on the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine’s review of climate pollution reform technologies: Climate Intervention — Carbon Dioxide Removal and Reliable Sequestration, June 2017. Theoretical academic publishing on the current state of direct air capture technologies, continues to color academic literature with very dated and inaccurate statements.  Part of the challenge…

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Fairness Bias: Big Misstatements in NYT Antarctic Ice Article

By Abrupt changes, ice sheet, Impacts, Oceans, Sea Level Rise, underice, West Antarctic Ice Sheet

This New York Times article from May has compiled the best of current Antarctic science images into a huge three-part piece, but some of the most important reporting is completely wrong. And most importantly, the way it is wrong exemplifies the impacts of the Climate change Counter Movement and how they have influenced the media’s…

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Sea Level Rise: IPCC Averages, Extremes From Latest Publishing, and Ice Sheet Collapse

By Abrupt changes, adaptation, Climate Policy, Climate Reform, CO2 Removal and Sequestration, Extreme Weather, global warming psychology, Greenland, Gulf Stream, ice sheet, ice sheets, Impacts, Legacy Policy, Messaging, Negative emissions, Psycho, Sea Level Rise, Solutions, Strategy, West Antarctic Ice Sheet

It’s not the averages that are troublesome. The understating reporting of scientists, journalists and climate science consensus organizations is one of the most confounding parts of climate change today. It’s the extremes that matter, yet extremes are viewed as “uncertainty” in a way almost entirely related to written grammar, rather than the statistical uncertainty of when,…

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Warm Winter, Early Spring: Is Climate Change a Mixed Bag or are we Kidding Ourselves?

By Abrupt changes, adaptation, Beaches coastal, Climate Catastrophes, Climate Policy, Climate Reform, CO2, Deniers and Delayers, Drought, economics, El Nino, Emissions, Emissions Scenarios, Extreme Weather, forest health, Forest Mortality, Glaciers, Greenland, Gulf Stream, ice sheet, ice sheets, Impacts, in-depth and Popular Press, IPCC, modeling, Negative emissions, Oceans, pine beetle, politics, Psycho, Scenarios, Sea Level Rise, Shifting Ecology, West Antarctic Ice Sheet, Winter Weather

President Trump it seems, has given us permission to backslide with our thinking about climate change. Until we have rule or law that tells us we must do something about climate pollution, “those that would rather it not be real” have won. This allows the debate to rage encouraging doubt. The Clean Power Plan and…

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We Can Have a Healthy Climate With Zero Warming in Our Lifetimes, by Bruce Melton

By Abrupt changes, Drought, forest health, Forest Mortality, Impacts, in-depth and Popular Press, pine beetle, Shifting Ecology, Truthout.org

  We can have a healthy climate — a climate with zero warming — in our lifetimes. The message for the last 20 years has been that we have to reduce emissions drastically to prevent dangerous climate change of more than 2 degrees C (3.6 F). This strategy would have likely worked when it was…

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