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Abrupt changes

New Report Warns Planet May Be Warming Twice as Fast as Expected

By Abrupt changes, Climate Catastrophes, Impacts, Legacy Policy, modeling, Reports, Sensitivity, Solutions, The Unexpected

  New Report Warns Planet May Be Warming Twice as Fast as Expected By Bruce Melton First Published on Truthout, May 28, 2019 New earthshaking science will be coming out in the 2021 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report that could nearly double future warming predictions. We have a window into this new science…

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State of the Climate Report 2018, American Meteorological Society

By Abrupt changes, Extreme Weather, Impacts, rainfall, Reports, sea ice, Sea Level Rise, Temperature

State of the Climate Report 2018, American Meteorological Society Unsurprisingly, we have roundly exceeded climate norms in our old climate. Records continue to be broken and climate statistics broadly show we are exceeding or near the leading edge of warming in recent years, as would be expected from a climate that continues to warm, that…

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Permafrost Melt Photo Tour 2018

By Abrupt changes, Arctic, feedback, forest health, Forest Mortality, Impacts, Methane, Permafrost

Permafrost Melt Photo Tour Climate Change Across America 2018 Field Work Already, Alaska has flipped from a carbon sink to a carbon source from permafrost melt and methane emissions. (Commane 2017, science interpreted) Alaska — the entire state, and likely the rest of the north across the entire world —  is now emitting greenhouse gases…

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Climate Science Compromise Feedback Loop and Unrecoverable Impacts

By Abrupt changes, adaptation, Beaches coastal, Climate Catastrophes, Climate Culture, Climate Policy, Climate Reform, climate restoration, Deniers and Delayers, feedback, global warming psychology, Healthy Climate, ice sheet, Impacts, Legacy Policy, Messaging, modeling, politics, Psycho, Sea Level Rise, The Unexpected, West Antarctic Ice Sheet

Why are climate change impacts so much worse than projected? What does it mean? Why don’t we do something? In a nutshell, science is conservative, it’s slow, and the great climate consensus that has evolved to protect our society compounds the understating nature of the industry of science. This creates a vastly understating public facing message. …

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West Antarctic Ice Sheet Collapse: The Critical Path

By Abrupt changes, Climate Catastrophes, Greenland, ice sheet, ice sheets, Impacts, Oceans, Sea Level Rise, West Antarctic Ice Sheet

    West Antarctic Ice Sheet Collapse: The Critical Path Article link Sea level rise estimates of around 10 feet by 2100 are now becoming hard to ignore. This article is about several new findings in 2018 that build on near-10 feet of sea level rise news from NOAA in 2016 and 2017. What is…

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Climate Change 2018 Review: The Good and Bad, What Have We Learned?

By Abrupt changes, adaptation, Agriculture, Arctic, Climate Catastrophes, Climate Policy, climate solutions, CO2 Removal and Sequestration, Extreme Weather, Fire, flood, forest health, Forest Mortality, Fracking, Healthy Climate, Impacts, in-depth and Popular Press, IPCC, Negative emissions, Permafrost, pine beetle, politics, Reports, Scenarios, Solutions, Trump, Uncategorized

Climate Change 2018 Review:  Part 1 – The Bad  by Bruce Melton Climate Change Now Initiative, 501c3 (Link to Article) So much happened in our climate change world in 2018 that we are printing this article in two parts: The Bad, and The Good. We start with the bad, and as bad as it was…

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California Wildfires: Where Is the Climate Change Outrage?

By Abrupt changes, Climate Catastrophes, climate change counter movement, Climate Culture, Climate Policy, Climate Reform, climate restoration, Extreme Weather, Fire, Impacts, Truthout.org

    California Wildfires: Where Is the Climate Change Outrage?   Bruce Melton First published at Truthout.org November 17, 2018 Unprecedented droughts, fires and floods are not the “new normal”: Climate change gets nonlinearly worse from here on out. Like an avalanche, the physics of warming determines that a little more warming doesn’t create a…

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Titanic II: Icebergs on a Warmer Planet

By Abrupt changes, Arctic, Climate Catastrophes, Drought, Extreme Weather, Greenland, Gulf Stream, Impacts, rainfall, Truthout.org

In an Age of Climate Change, Even Titanic II Is Not Safe From Icebergs Bruce Melton First Published on Truthout November 13, 2018 Titanic II is set to sail in 2022. It’s a $500 million replica of the doomed Titanic that hit a North Atlantic iceberg in 1912. A local news report about the new ship postulated…

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Climate Change Across America: Summary of Summer Filming Season 2018

By Abrupt changes, Climate Catastrophes, Extreme Weather, Fire, flood, Flooding, forest health, Forest Mortality, Glaciers, Impacts, Mega-Landslides, Permafrost, pine beetle

Climate Change Across America: Summary of Summer Filming Season 2018 (Our trip log with photos and videos can be found here.) This year was year four of filming with 43,000 total miles of observation to date. In the summer filming season in 2018, for 16,000 miles from Austin to the Arctic via California, we literally…

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Climate Change Across America 2018: Full Trip Log

By Abrupt changes, Arctic, Climate Catastrophes, Drought, Extreme Weather, Fire, flood, Flooding, forest health, Forest Mortality, Glaciers, Heat, Impacts, in-depth and Popular Press, Mega-Landslides, Permafrost, pine beetle, Shifting Ecology

  Climate Change Across America An Art Film About Climate Impacts Coming in 2020 Full Trip Log, Summer Filming Season 2018: June 27 through August 11 – Austin to the Arctic Circle via California. The expedition was 16,199 miles, 46 days, 42 different camps, 2 motels – Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, California, Oregon, Washington, British Columbia,…

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Forest Mortality Exceeds Growth For the First Time

By Abrupt changes, Climate Catastrophes, forest health, Forest Mortality, pine beetle

Our Nation’s Timberlands Flip: Mortality Exceeds Growth by 2:1 Because of climate change, our nation’s forests are dying faster than they are regenerating. This was not supposed to happen for a long, long time. It’s really something that is not even projected, except in very vague terms about ecosystem transformation. But today, already, we see…

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How much CO2 reduction, how much does it cost, and what’s it worth? A Detailed Primer

By Abrupt changes, Climate Reform, climate restoration, climate solutions, CO2 Removal and Sequestration, Healthy Climate, Negative emissions, sequestration, Strategy

How much CO2 reduction, how much does it cost, and what’s it worth? A Detailed Primer We have been moving towards the answers to these questions forever it seems, so here goes: Immediately below is my summary. Further down are thoughts on how I arrived at these numbers. These costs assume that we can do…

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The 45Q Carbon Sequestration Tax Credits: First Steps or Moral Hazard?

By Abrupt changes, Climate Culture, Climate Policy, Climate Reform, climate restoration, climate solutions, CO2 Removal and Sequestration, economics, Healthy Climate, Legacy Policy, Negative emissions, politics, sequestration, Solutions, Strategy, What we can do

  The 45Q Carbon Sequestration Tax Credits: First Steps or Moral Hazard? Summary: The new enhancements to Obama’s 45Q carbon dioxide sequestration tax credits are widely seen as a boon to the oil industry. A deeper look reveals they could be the incentive that allows us to actually reverse warming, something that most people understand…

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New Evaluation of Climate Models Reveals Abrupt Changes Ahead of Schedule

By Abrupt changes, Drought, Extreme Weather, forest health, Forest Mortality, Greenland, Gulf Stream, ice sheets, Impacts, modeling, The Unexpected

  New Evaluation of Climate Models Reveals Abrupt Changes Ahead of Schedule It’s not the averages that will mess up your hair, it’s the gusts. This work on modeling the unmodelable (Drijfhout 2015) is a couple of years old now, but it gives enormous insight into why it is that “ice cube melt climate science” is…

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Alaska Flips From Greenhouse Gas Sink to Source Because of Permafrost Melt

By Abrupt changes, Arctic, CO2, Methane, Permafrost

Alaskan Permafrost Flipped from Carbon Sink to Carbon Source Because of Permafrost Melt Climate Change is here. Alaskan permafrost is now emitting more greenhouse gases than it is storing according to work from Harvard, the Dublin Institute of Technology, Universities of Alaska, Colorado at Boulder, California at Irvine, NOAA and others in this powerhouse paper….

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Sing Delay, Delay, Delay: 0.5 C Limit to Dangerous Climate Change

By Abrupt changes, Arctic, Climate Policy, Climate Reform, climate restoration, CO2, Emissions, Greenland, Gulf Stream, ice sheet, Impacts, Legacy Policy, Methane, modeling, sea ice, Strategy, West Antarctic Ice Sheet

Sing Delay, Delay, Delay When serious discussions about global warming gases and fossil fuels began in the 1980s, all that was needed to prevent what would become labeled as dangerous climate change was a reduction of the emissions of global warming gases. Since that time, we have emitted as much CO2 as we emitted in…

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What’s the Big Deal With Climate Change?

By Abrupt changes, Climate Culture, Climate Reform, Deniers and Delayers, Drought, Emissions Scenarios, Extreme Weather, forest health, Forest Mortality, Impacts, Messaging, Myths, pine beetle, Psycho, Shifting Ecology, Strategy, The Unexpected, What we can do

What’s the Big Deal With Climate Change? We all understand climate change is trouble. Even a really significant percentage of oil and gas professionals understand. Of a recent poll (2014) of 474 oil and gas industry insiders, 85 percent believed global warming was happening, 58 percent were either very sure or extremely sure, and 57 percent…

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Abrupt Sea Level Rise Warning From NOAA: Paris Inadequate

By Abrupt changes, Beaches coastal, Climate Culture, Climate Policy, Climate Reform, climate restoration, climate solutions, economics, Emissions, Emissions Scenarios, Healthy Climate, ice sheets, Impacts, Negative emissions, Scenarios, Sea Level Rise, Solutions, West Antarctic Ice Sheet

NOAA’s new sea level rise report in January 2017 is a dope slap that describes 17 inches of sea level rise in Florida by 2030. You can see the report here, or check out our review that summarizes the important parts here.  The continuing publishing of sea level rise research on emissions reductions and resultant…

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