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modeling

IPCC Special Report on Oceans and Cryosphere, The Important Bits

By Abrupt changes, adaptation, Antarctica, Arctic, Arctic Sea Ice, Beaches coastal, Glaciers, Greenland, ice sheet, ice sheets, Impacts, IPCC, Methane, modeling, Oceans, Permafrost, sea ice, Sea Level Rise, West Antarctic Ice Sheet

  Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Report, September 24, 2019 The Ocean and Cryosphere (the icy part of our planet) in a Changing Climate A Summary of Important Findings Overall of course, climate change is astonishingly worse with every new report. This one is no exception. Polar and mountain ice are melting faster, the…

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New Report Warns Planet May Be Warming Twice as Fast as Expected

By Abrupt changes, Climate Catastrophes, Impacts, Legacy Policy, modeling, Reports, Sensitivity, Solutions, The Unexpected

  New Report Warns Planet May Be Warming Twice as Fast as Expected By Bruce Melton First Published on Truthout, May 28, 2019 New earthshaking science will be coming out in the 2021 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report that could nearly double future warming predictions. We have a window into this new science…

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Climate Science Compromise Feedback Loop and Unrecoverable Impacts

By Abrupt changes, adaptation, Antarctica, Beaches coastal, Climate Catastrophes, Climate Culture, Climate Policy, Climate Reform, climate restoration, communications, Deniers and Delayers, feedback, global warming psychology, Healthy Climate, ice sheet, Impacts, Legacy Policy, Media, Messaging, modeling, Policy, politics, Psycho, Sea Level Rise, The Unexpected, West Antarctic Ice Sheet

Why are climate change impacts so much worse than projected? What does it mean? Why don’t we do something? In a nutshell, science is conservative, it’s slow, and the great climate consensus that has evolved to protect our society compounds the understating nature of the industry of science. This creates a vastly understating public facing message. …

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New Evaluation of Climate Models Reveals Abrupt Changes Ahead of Schedule

By Abrupt changes, Drought, Extreme Weather, forest health, Forest Mortality, Greenland, Gulf Stream, ice sheets, Impacts, modeling, The Unexpected

  New Evaluation of Climate Models Reveals Abrupt Changes Ahead of Schedule It’s not the averages that will mess up your hair, it’s the gusts. This work on modeling the unmodelable (Drijfhout 2015) is a couple of years old now, but it gives enormous insight into why it is that “ice cube melt climate science” is…

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Sing Delay, Delay, Delay: 0.5 C Limit to Dangerous Climate Change

By Abrupt changes, Arctic, Climate Policy, Climate Reform, climate restoration, CO2, Emissions, Greenland, Gulf Stream, ice sheet, Impacts, Legacy Policy, Methane, modeling, Policy, sea ice, Strategy, West Antarctic Ice Sheet

Sing Delay, Delay, Delay When serious discussions about global warming gases and fossil fuels began in the 1980s, all that was needed to prevent what would become labeled as dangerous climate change was a reduction of the emissions of global warming gases. Since that time, we have emitted as much CO2 as we emitted in…

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Very Large Negative Emissions: Beyond Paris Emissions Reductions to a Safe and Healthy Climate

By Abrupt changes, Antarctica, Climate Catastrophes, Climate Policy, Climate Reform, climate solutions, CO2 Removal and Sequestration, Emissions Scenarios, Extreme Weather, Impacts, modeling, Negative emissions, Policy, Scenarios, Sea Level Rise, Strategy, West Antarctic Ice Sheet

James Hansen, 32 year director of the U.S. national climate modeling agency, the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (1981-2013, now retired), has had a new fundamental piece of climate work published. His team looks at the negative emissions required–in addition to various scenarios for emissions reductions–that are needed to achieve “non-dangerous” warming. Under Hansen’s…

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When Does Climate Catastrophism Become Climate Reality?

By Abrupt changes, adaptation, Antarctica, Climate Catastrophes, Climate Culture, Climate Policy, economics, Extreme Weather, flood, modeling, Policy

  Climate catastrophism, or as it will be called soon, reality, is getting tougher to pin down with every new climate catastrophe. A real page turner on the subject is Lynas, Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet. It’s from 2007 and hyperbolic for the day, but appearing less so as extremeness increases faster…

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Sea Level Rise Scenarios Starting to Catch Up With Prehistory

By Abrupt changes, Antarctica, Climate Reform, CO2 Removal and Sequestration, ice sheets, modeling, Negative emissions, Sea Level Rise, sequestration, short-term, Solutions, Strategy, West Antarctic Ice Sheet

McClatchy reported on a new NOAA sea level rise impact report and made some very good points. But a lot of the true meaning is left out. I like to use well publicized journalism like this to be able to quickly get to the most important pieces of the science being reported on, that are…

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Global Warming vs. Abrupt Change — What’s the Difference?

By Abrupt changes, Antarctica, Arctic, Glaciers, Greenland, Gulf Stream, ice sheets, modeling, Sea Level Rise, West Antarctic Ice Sheet

Something that is not clear in the overall climate discussion is that global warming is a radically different beast from abrupt change.  We hear abrupt change bandied about, but often it is not well defined. It appears to many that global warming is abrupt change simply because the warming we are experiencing, and that is…

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Warm Winter, Early Spring: Is Climate Change a Mixed Bag or are we Kidding Ourselves?

By Abrupt changes, adaptation, Antarctica, Beaches coastal, Climate Catastrophes, Climate Policy, Climate Reform, CO2, Deniers and Delayers, Drought, economics, El Nino, Emissions, Emissions Scenarios, Extreme Weather, forest health, Forest Mortality, Glaciers, Greenland, Gulf Stream, ice sheet, ice sheets, Impacts, in-depth and Popular Press, IPCC, modeling, Negative emissions, Oceans, pine beetle, Policy, politics, Psycho, Scenarios, Sea Level Rise, Shifting Ecology, West Antarctic Ice Sheet, Winter Weather

President Trump it seems, has given us permission to backslide with our thinking about climate change. Until we have rule or law that tells us we must do something about climate pollution, “those that would rather it not be real” have won. This allows the debate to rage encouraging doubt. The Clean Power Plan and…

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NOAA — Ice Sheet Collapse in Our Time: Zero Warming Climate Solution

By Abrupt changes, adaptation, Antarctica, Arctic, Climate Policy, CO2, CO2 Removal and Sequestration, Emissions, Emissions Scenarios, Greenland, ice sheets, in-depth and Popular Press, modeling, Negative emissions, Sea Level Rise, Solutions, West Antarctic Ice Sheet

We have delayed too long and now must urgently reduce the load of warming gases already emitted to our sky. We have been warned this would happen for decades, we just didn’t think it would happen so soon. This is exceedingly bad news, though the good news with climate change is very good indeed. The…

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Extremely Increasing Extremes Already and the Accuracy of Climate Models

By Extreme Weather, modeling

In the long-term,  extreme weather will certainly become more extreme, with hotter heat waves and less intense cold waves, more intense  precipitation events and longer drought. But in the short-term (40 years or less) things may reverse regionally or they may increase even more dramatically than the long-term rate suggests. This new modeling work shows…

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